Following hot on the heels of its release, the Chief Scientist appeared on ABC TV’s Q&A program. Along with some politicians and consumer advocates, the opportunity to discuss some details about the report and the energy market generally.
Look, I don’t generally watch Q&A; what started out as a great premise – get politicians in front of the public to make them answer questions on live, national TV – soon turned into this:
The best episodes were those featuring scientists with no politicians. No surprises there. Any episode involving politicians soon turned into a battle of wits between unarmed opponents.
While there were politicians on last night’s showing (one from each major party), the key inclusions were from the consumer advocacy sector.
Voice Of The Consumer
Amanda McKenzie is CEO of the Climate Council. Formed via crowd funding, after the Climate Commission was abolished by the current government.
Rosemary Sinclair is the CEO of Energy Consumers Australia. ECA aims to provide a voice for residential and small business consumers of energy. Of particular concern to their mission is fair pricing, and reliability.
Of particular interest to ECA is ongoing survey of Energy Consumer Sentiment. This is key to understanding the market as it affects users.
While the two politicians sought to score points, both the CEOs on the panel stayed above the petty bickering. The refreshingly factual dialogue on what consumers want should serve as a reminder to our politicians that their role is to represent us.
The discussion moved to CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), which seems like a good idea until you look at the economics. Like a lot of fossil-fuel related initiatives, it seems great until apples are compared to apples, as McKenzie said: new renewables beat new fossil fuels.
The Finkel Report, and the man himself, argue that any approach should be tech-agnostic. Therefore we must assume any initiatives that come out of this are economically sound. Coal – in any guise – simply isn’t, even before the healthy impacts are measured.
The most important part of the night were Rosemary Sinclair’s closing remarks. It really sums up our frustration, both at a consumer level for certainty on pricing, and for industry in terms of investment.
We will see where this goes. Hopefully governments at State and Federal level, in light of the Finkel Report, drop the partisanship and legislate for the network we deserve.
As I mentioned on twitter, I’ll be attending Renewable Cities in Sydney this week.
With the release of the Finkel Report so close, I predict there will be a lot of interesting discussion. The goal of the forum is to merge minds on the way forward for our ever-expanding cities and towns.
There are workshops on EVs, a few people like Reposit Power will be there, and I’m looking forward to having a chat to people as I seek out the next stage in my career.
I’ll also bang out a few Twitter Live experiences so make sure you’re following @AuPowerwall!
I’ve been a bit busy to monitor my usage regularly, of late. Feeling out of touch, I made a point of checking my solar generation after recent rainy weeks.
It seemed a little low. Usually I hit 5kW around the middle of the day, but was peaking out at 4.6kW. I was contacted by someone who lives nearby with a corresponding fall in numbers.
The only theory we have to go off is lower angle of the sun. Additionally, because there were two weeks of Autumn where we almost never saw direct sunlight, we didn’t see the slow decline over time.
Its like seeing someone’s kids only occasionally – can’t believe how much they’ve grown! Their parents see it every day.
Having not checked anything for a while, I headed over to the SolarEdge Monitoring Portal to compare their results to Reposit. Having a second source for comparison is very helpful to sort out any discrepancies.
Well, there certainly have been some changes! And all of them look like winners.
The first noticeable change was the new Monthly profile for Power and Energy.
There was a period where the “self-consumption” figure wasn’t being reported through some conflict with the Reposit interface. That’s back, which is great.
Added to this is the “From Battery” stat which is quite cool. It features both in the Consumption summary figure, and the bar graph. This is only recent, so I look forward to that percentage figure “from batteries” smoothing out with a larger data sample.
If you mouse-over any of those bar graphs it gives you the details, in kWh, for the days that have been completed. Again – very vool.
I also hadn’t given much thought to the year-on-year comparison before I had enough data. Now its very handy to answer questions I and my near-neighbour have about long-term performance.
For reference, the figures are in the table below for the three months with suitable data.
* As of April 24.
What I find really interesting is the March figure; despite having an extra 1.5kW of panels this March compared to 2016, the weather meant I didn’t generate quite as much.
Moving forward, I’m sure subsequent years and months will prove to be most interesting. I love me some data!
Live Baby Live!
They’ve also updated the Overview panel to have near-real-time feeds of consumption. I did a quick screen cap of this and stuck it on my YouTube Channel. I like.
All in all, a great round of SolarEdge Updates as we move toward the cooler months.
Finding time to sit and think has been a bit hard. At the same time, there is so much happening here in Australia with regards to renewable energy, its difficult to keep up!
So here’s a scatter gun approach to energy blogging:
Part 1 of this is a scam warning. A group listed “50% OFF!” specials for LG panels and LGChem batteries here recently. One example:
Now, nobody in their right mind should be writing 7.2kw’s as that’s just bad grammar.
Second issue is they’re using a lower case “w” to represent “Watt” for both panels and battery, which is wrong in every scientific manner.
Third issue is the battery is listed as “kw” instead of “kWh” – always remember that batteries are energy storage. This means they should always be listed with their kWh (kilowatt hour) figure to understand.
Beyond all that, the pricing is just cray-cray, and so is the manner of billing. A friend of mine contacted them and they sent him an invoice for the full $12,990. This is weird as most equipment sales would take a deposit (maybe as little as $1000), instead of the full amount to get started.
As it is, he cold-called LG Australia directly, who were aware of it, but couldn’t say much for legal reasons. He also dug a little deeper on the website with the original promotion to see what he could turn up.
Both leads turned him onto the fact that this wasn’t all that it seemed, so he backed right off. Good move.
Several people I’ve talked to in Canberra (our nation’s capital) are saying the phone is off the hook from government offices.
Suddenly people are realising that a smart, integrated grid is a thing we need. The people in power are starting to come around to the fact that coal is going to collapse, and that idiot behaviour about it needs to stop.
That is the Australian Federal Treasurer, waving a lump of coal around in our House of Representatives.
Of course, politicians are populists by nature these days, so it remains to be seen whether talk of batteries survives the Next Big Issue they invent.
New Hydro Stuff
And from the book of “Hey! I’m a Populist, too!” comes our own Prime Minister. He’s decided that expanding our big hydro power scheme in The Snowy Mountains* is an awesome idea, and is framing it as “nation-building”
* some of the place naming in Australia is not wildly original…
Powerwall v2 promises to really shift the landscape, offering twice the capacity of my unit, for roughly the same price. Other manufacturers are going to need to start offering more capacity or other desirable features to keep up.
Along with the big battery moves, 2017 looks like its going to be a very interesting year. Most predicted we wouldn’t hit this stage until 2020, but here we are!
Many jobs, with new types of infrastructure projects, will be required to make this happen. That means opportunities for people to jump on the train as its leaving the station.
Note: I’m always open to proposals in this regard.
Looking at my statistics, the last 28 days have seen generation below 21kWh / day, compared to a lifetime average of a little over 23kWh / day.
Consumption is also down, which is in part due to tapering off the pool pump now we’re in the cooler months.
Import is sitting around the average, though I haven’t needed the grid too much. The occasional Reposit Power off-peak import has bumped this number up a little, but I’m thankful for saving a few dollars.
Now that its been a year, with statistics, I’m satisfied that things will just tick along without my intervention. I don’t really have time to watch it 24/7 anyway!
I’ve started overriding my obsession with checking the system every 10 minutes.
As scientific bodies continue to explore and model the effects of climate change, the technologists, disruptors, and entrepreneurs are seeking ways to combat it. The use of renewable power in the form of wind and solar is one of the key areas.
However, a valid criticism of renewable energy is stability: if the sun doesn’t shine, and the wind doesn’t blow, solar and wind are in under-supply. If the sun DOES shine brightly and the wind picks up, the renewable energy grid produces oversupply.
This situation is prominent in the California “Duck Curve”. The belly of the duck is over-generation from solar, while the head of the duck is the consumption ramp for night-time domestic use.
As domestic and commercial solar uptake increases across the world, there is a genuine risk to existing grids. Trying to address this issue alongside a mix of traditional power generation is difficult. Large, traditional generators cannot uplift generation, or halt it, at short notice.
I believe the natural solution is widespread adoption of storage technology.
Domestic storage will mature rapidly over the next 5 years, as household battery options become cheaper, due to vertical integration of the production process. This will be particularly true in established Western housing markets, particularly those dwellings with rooftop solar options.
It also enables the concept of virtual power plants for retailers to access power stored in domestic appliances. In the future, consumers will engage in peer-to-peer trading via blockchain and other smart technologies. The net result is to lower the need for a traditional “grid” and the associated maintenance for poles and wires.
Industrial storage will see positive disruption to hi-tech engineering solutions, using renewable generation. Efficiency has a large role to play here, as innovation across multiple sectors leads to better production engineering.
The volatility of frequency required for running many heavy industries can be offset with larger scale storage. These battery systems act like a buffer, or regulator, in order to provide assurance of stability. Large storage can also be deployed by energy networks in order to back up local power infrastructure.
Transport storage is a key area for addressing carbon emissions. While cars are the major playground for this technology right now, the move to heavy transport, agriculture, and public transport offers a range of other benefits.
I call it “Transport storage” because it offers more than just a way to move people or goods from one place to another. There is the opportunity to place domestic, industrial, and transport storage in synch, to produce a more efficient outcome for renewable energy.
Consider the California Duck Curve I mentioned before. This is the result of “too much of a good thing” when we have an over-abundance of solar PV! What if there was a way to mitigate this?
The average shopping mall in most countries has a roof space in the hundreds of square metres. They also contain hundreds, if not thousands, of car spaces.
If we add solar panels on that roof space, and storage in the basement, we can effectively create a curve smoothing apparatus by plugging in a suitable number of EVs during daylight hours. A similar system could be used by places of work for the benefit of employees.
Such a system would draw not only from the local (mall rooftop) power, but also spill excess renewable energy into recharging the transport network in other places. This might take the form of powering connected public transport – like electric buses or trains – on site, or via the grid.
All the while, this large-scale storage and renewable generation helps flatten the belly of the duck during the day. When people return to their homes at night, they can cut the head off the duck using their domestic storage.
Storage, along with the associated smart management technologies, provides the cornerstone for a renewable energy future. The combination of increased efficiency, and reduction of fossil fuel burning, is undeniable.
It is the first bill I’ve received with TOU (Time Of Use) tariffs, which changes the landscape a bit for me.
I already have data from Reposit Power about billing estimates on a daily basis. While they’re pretty sharp, the guys doing the billing are where it counts. I wanted to see how close all the estimates – including my own – would be to the truth.
The net result is a deposit into my bank account (yesterday) of $50.25.
The fixed costs were as follows, excluding GST, for the 84-day period.
Service connection fee
Usage over the period at the various TOU rates came to the following (all amounts are excluding GST).
Peak – Rate 1*
Peak – Balance
* This covers the first 340kWh / month
I imported only 176.181kWh over an 84-day period. That works out to just under 2.1kWh per day during that time. Only 0.3kWh in peak tariff period!
There were a couple of rainy days in a row that I recall. One of those coincided with hosting a family event, using the oven, and dishwasher a couple of times. As it was the weekend, shoulder rate tariff applied.
Factors in my favour are summarised in the table below.
Net feed-in tariff
Direct Debit Discount
Pay on Time Discount*
* This amount is calculated against the previous bill
The export figure is massive at nearly 13.1 kWh per day! Its worth noting that the new panels I got in October covered about 25 of the 84 days in this billing cycle.
The first lot of GridCredits were applied to this bill, and that $5.04 is handy for knocking the top off that peak tariff.
Once you throw everything into a pile, and calculate GST, you get the balance of -$50.25. Diamond will credit your account for any amount of $50 or more owed. For the first time ever I have positive billing for electricity in my favour!
About those referrals…
Yes, Diamond have a pretty generous referral scheme. Both the existing customer and new customer get a $35 credit which is pretty sweet. Long may it continue!
Having just one of those per quarter could help the electricity bill head drastically toward zero. The question is, how many friends and family can you tap into on a regular basis? 🙂
Let’s remove that $70 amount from the equation to look at the regular money.
Just The Facts, Ma’am
We now have an electricity bill of $19.75, or 23.5 cents per day, which is even lower than my first full bill in July.
When you export enough energy to cover your service connection fee, you’re doing pretty well.
When you self-consume most of the rest, and only bring in a very small amount of peak power, that is obviously much better.
That said, summer reality is starting to hit. As I write this, the outside temperature is creeping up toward 37oC (99oF). The air conditioner is running. Cloud cover is building as we head into the afternoon, and peak power tariff kicks in.
I’m taking this opportunity to experiment with the ducted air conditioner. I need to determine how to minimise cost without unduly affecting comfort levels.
Billing cycles will now fall roughly into quarters ending in October, January, May, and August. I need to think about maximising the two “good” periods, and mitigating the damage during peak summer and winter.
Of course, climate change might make the summer period even worse. That is something scientists already say is being felt, and will only increase.
Positive Billing Into The Future
How will things look this summer? There will be more sunshine than in winter, but more electricity consumption as well.
The data I have for the year ending January 2016 (when the system was installed) suggests summer usage is a couple of percent higher than winter.
Will this be offset by any exports I do? How does the temperature affect this calculation in terms of air conditioner use? Pool pump running? More events in warmer weather?
These are questions I can’t yet answer.
For now, I have 258 days of finalised bills, with a net electricity cost of $113.28 with referrals. That’s 43.9 cents per day for electricity, so I’m pretty stoked.
Even without the referrals, the figure is 71 cents per day, which is lower than my connection fee, and works out to $260 a year for electricity.
Even extrapolating the summer quarter as $1.30 per day (higher than winter), it works out to around $310 per year.
That still puts me in the box seat for a payback under 10 years, so its all systems go for now.
Relentless Self-Promotion Bit
Hey did you catch my recent video? I did a bit of off-road driving a couple of weekends ago. I’d love some more subscribers to my YouTube channel, so I can make more videos of things relating to solar panels and my own interests.
Charge my battery when it is cheap, to use when it is not.
“Hang on – you have solar panels! Why do you need the arbithingees?”
I’m glad you asked, random internet person.
Tariff Arbitrage In Practice
Tariff arbitrage needs a set of circumstances to be useful.
Firstly, a battery to store the power. Solar is awesome, but it has issues with needing the sun. That generally means daytime, and not raining.
Secondly, you need the right electricity plan. When I was on single-rate electricity, I’d pay about 23c / kWh around the clock. Now I’m on TOU (Time Of Use), I pay off-peak of around 13c / kWh, and peak of around 33c / kWh.
Third, you need something smart to control all this, like Reposit Power. My Reposit box governs power flows between Solar PV, battery, and grid.
It has a learning engine for my household habits, so it knows when I’ll use power. Additionally, it can look at weather forecasts to see when I’ll have solar energy available.
These are two important things to know, because when I’ll use power and when the sun is shining are going to make a difference for my power bill. Particularly as I pay different rates for power when I use it.
A Graphic Example
Here is a screenshot of the (new) Reposit interface for my battery from this morning. I’ve edited the image to have two labels on it to show the power consumption.
Fairly typical for the household while we’re asleep. The Powerwall slowly draining as it feeds the fridge, any standby devices, and bathroom light for the kids. Only thing that changes is how much is in the battery to start with.
Here is the same screen but with data from the day before.
Yowzah! It is going UP! And there is a reason for that: tariff arbitrage.
Yesterday, the forecast for Sydney was rain and heavily overcast conditions.
The Reposit software decided, based on the weather and my needs, that it should top up the battery to get me through the day. It uses the off-peak period to do that, and had actually commenced importing at 10PM the previous night.
This is the first time I’ve seen it top the battery right up. As you can see from the rest of the graph, I didn’t get through all this power in peak time. But I was buying it at a much lower cost than I’d otherwise pay.
Reposit Power aims to lower my costs. This decision to top up the battery is primarily for the peak period of 1-8PM where costs are at a premium. Once you take transmission loss into account (92% round trip efficiency on the Powerwall) I’m still ahead against Peak power cost by a ratio of 2:1.
Everything in between will mostly be taken care of by the trickle of Solar PV I generated during the day, as evidenced by the chart below.
This figure of 10.8kWh for the day is a long way from the 40kWh I’ve registered twice so far in October. But every bit counts.
Smoothing the Curve
Thinking about the solar figure jumping around a little, it also brings to light the other aspect of battery usage: curve smoothing.
When we have days with scudding* cloud and intermittent sunshine, a solar PV house with no battery is forced to call on the grid multiple times.
* Totally a word. Look it up.
Once the battery gets some juice in it, I’m less reliant on the grid for a sudden change in conditions.
Combine this with the automation of Reposit Power – where I don’t need to think about when the sun is out or not – and I’m onto a winner!
They looked at the system, and advised placing an extra six panels on the western roof. The same Phono Solar 250W panels would be used, each with a SolarEdge P300 power optimiser.
The two existing arrays tie back to the inverter with one string each. The new array would be joined onto the array to the left of picture (western). This made for the simplest install as it didn’t require new wiring to the inverter.
It also provided the benefit of generating from the sun in the afternoon. This is useful in the warmer months where I am more likely to use air conditioning.
Additionally, for those days that have overcast mornings, but sunny afternoons, I’d see the most benefit. Particularly true given the house has a rising ridge line to the east, so doesn’t see much sun early in the day.
With the detail sorted out, we agreed on a date for Splice Electrical to perform the upgrade. James and Nick turned up, and with their usual friendly professionalism, got to it.
While they were here I also got them to disconnect some old PSTN infrastructure that was slowing my NBN connection. Increased speed by 40%! Legends…
A few hours later I was the proud owner of another 1.5kW of panels!
Naturally, with an upgrade of this sort, you’re going to expect some improved results. The system has had a size increase of 30% (1.5 / 5.0 = 0.3). Would I get similar generation increases?
The main factor in all this is still the inverter. The SE5000 in my system is limited to 5kW in any direction. Therefore, expected generation, even with 6.5kW of panels, is limited to 5kW maximum.
I was quietly confident I’d hit this high mark regularly, given I generated 4.9kW or more at points during February and March, and even in May!
However, the panels aren’t in the same orientation as the rest of the system, so what is the effect?
Setting the baseline
According to one source, a solar PV system in Sydney should produce 3.9kWh per kW of installed panels per day. That is under lab conditions.
My initial system setup should (on average) have produced about 19.5kWh of electricity per day. For the lifetime of the system at 5kW, the SolarEdge API reports the following figure:
I hasten to point out that the data is a little murky. The SolarEdge API consolidates “generation” from PV and battery, because of the way it monitors flow.
Therefore, that figure only works if we’re assuming the battery is filled and drained every day. This certainly isn’t the case 100% of the time, but its enough to show we’re in the ballpark.
Another part of this is loss due to inefficiency. The Powerwall is about 92% efficient, meaning I have to spend around 1.5kWh of the 19.5kWh figure on the power going into and out of the battery.
The other factor is the timeline; we’re looking at a period from mid-February to early October. This includes the shorter daylight hours.
With all these factors considered, I’d say this is actually looking like a decent marker, even with the accepted error margin (+/- 10%) in the SolarEdge API.
Effect Of Upgrade
An extra 1.5kW of panels should result in a generation figure of 25.35kWh per day, on average, for Sydney.
The first caveat for this figure: it has been spankingly good weather in Sydney for the last week.
The new panels are also a different orientation to the others, which may affect the figure.
It is also a very small sample in terms of days. In the interests of science, I’ll leave this chart here to update daily. You can check in on it any time you like. A rolling 7- and 28-day chart is also on the Statistics page.
Average just shy of 33kWh at time of print. Pretty good weather!
A better analysis might be to look at the curves being produced by the different panel setups. The figures aren’t as important as the shape of the curve.
A small point: that is my record day so far. And its only October. Tee hee!
More importantly, we see the extension of the curve from the new peak around 1PM (daylight savings, remember), through until the late afternoon. We get a lot closer to sunset for generation as well.
The peak 5kW on this particular day hit at 1128 hours, and it stayed there until 1514 hours. The 5kW system infrequently reached 4.9kW, and then only for short stretches.
With the extra panels, not only is the generation figure much higher, but the long afternoon sun really kicks in.
As we move further into the warmer months, I expect the 5kW peak to be longer. Most likely, this will result in much more export until the point the ducted air conditioner is required on a regular basis.
I need to develop a strategy to mitigate that. Perhaps running the air conditioner in “continuous” mode on sunny days will help. This aims to keep the house cool, and the thermostat will lower the overall energy requirement.
I’m still finalising the change in payback time on the new array. Due to the move to TOU pricing, it is getting hard to keep all the facts and figures in order.
For the most part, I’m going to keep rolling calculations based on the single-rate plan offered by Diamond Energy. The rest of it makes my head hurt.
I’ll keep this pretty short, because the South Australian Storms are consuming a lot of media attention at the moment. This article is a bit of a linkstorm, because people have said most of this more eloquently than I could.
You can pretty much sum up the situation with this tweet:
The state of South Australia here has been hit by what is being described as a 50 year storm. The damage you see in the picture above has contributed to the entire state losing power.
As this article explains, tornadoes brought down critical infrastructure, and the network was brought down as a safety measure. Note that tornadoes aren’t a very common occurrence in Australia.
South Australia is connected to the state of Victoria for power sharing, as part of the South East grid. If the interconnector stayed up, and started demanding power from Victoria, it had knock-on implications for the whole grid.
Despite the magnitude of the disaster, there are some silver linings to the South Australian storms.
Reposit Power also had a customer request for power, in preparation for the storm. Why not use the grid import facility of Reposit to grab power before the storm hits? That way, even threats to infrastructure won’t hurt the average household.
While most people can see themselves getting a battery in blackout hotspots, most would never have considered the magnitude of such an event.
Though, in fairness, I suppose most people haven’t seen a storm this big.
Of course, it didn’t take some peanuts long to have a crack at the high percentage of renewable energy in South Australia. The state closed its last coal-fired power station a few weeks ago. It has been a nonstop bunfight since.
It really boils my piss to see this kind of thing go down. You’d think no-one in recorded history had ever had a blackout before. Or that, in some wild universe, humanity has never seen a storm of this scale until solar panels were invented.
Correlation does not imply causation. Maybe some of these idiots should learn something about that.
We’ve got a state suffering the effects of one of the biggest storms in living memory, and people are playing politics, as South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill states so well.
SA Premier Jay Weatherill accuses federal politicians of playing politics with the SA blackout. https://t.co/hpzK5CQ26V
I’ve had the Powerwall six months now, or in fact a little longer. It would be more accurate to say I’ve had a functioning solar PV with battery system for seven months.
That dates back to when my meter was changed over to a basic bi-directional unit. Importantly, it is the date that billing with Diamond Energy started, with full and accurate detail of import and export.
I have had a total of three bills, the most recent of which covers 52 days from mid-June to early August. It stops there because I’ve moved from single-rate to TOU tariffs, so Diamond decided to make things easier for calculation purposes.
The other two were covered by my blog post back in July. The full quarterly bill naturally received more attention than the one I hinted at in that post. With 174 days of billing data now in the bank, its time to look at a longer period.
This post will put up the basically points of interest from the three bills and their relevant statistics.
Powerwall Six Months Analysis – Part 1
The first bill covered the period of 17th February through to 23rd March.
Average / day
* This amount removes the $20 establishment fee with Diamond ($22 inc GST)
With a connection fee of just over $0.82 / day, and an export tariff of 8 cents/kWh, I was almost covering the connection.
Of course, import was going to hit a bit harder in summer time. The last week of February was a record-setter in Sydney.
The temperature was minimum 26oC / 79oF for nearly the whole week. Frequently the temperature was over 35oC (95oF) in the late afternoon, hitting those big, west-facing windows. I can only sweat so much!
That kind of heat requires air conditioning, which you can see in the red spikes below.
It probably wasn’t even the amount I imported, more a case of when it was imported.
This is a small precursor to what you can expect from an Australian summer in this part of Sydney region. No ocean breezes this far inland.
During this period I clocked some fairly hefty production figures, topping out at around 34kWh, with several days in excess of 30.
The heat of a Sydney summer makes me a little cautious in regard to power usage. In addition to the extended hours for the pool, the heat will require air conditioning. That means import.
January tends to be the wettest month in Sydney, and storm season. Luckily, for those cloudy days and weeks I’ve got Reposit Power to do the thinking for me.
POWERWALL SIX MONTHS ANALYSIS – PART 2
The start date was 24th March, running through until 17th of June, 2016. This was the big quarterly bill which grabbed the media attention here in Australia, with a few overseas articles published as well.
As you can see, the daily figures show slight decreases across the board.
At my import tariff, this equates to 13.2 cents / day decrease in costs as I’m importing less.
The export is 4.8 cents / day cost increase as I’m exporting less.
This comes out to 8.4 cents per day. The actual decrease of 9 cents per day is due in part to rounding.
Additionally, Diamond single-rate tariffs step up by a small amount once you use more than a certain number of kWh per month.
The weather during this period was pretty good. We had long weeks of sunshine, with few rainy days. The temperatures were very mild, meaning we didn’t need air conditioning or heating.
POWERWALL SIX MONTHS ANALYSIS – PART 3
The latest bill runs from 18th June through to 9th August, or a total of 52 days over winter.
In terms of “winter”, I should mention it never snows here. The closest snow I think fell about an hour’s drive away, in the Blue Mountains. It isn’t frosbite territory, and with the climate warming, isn’t ever likely to be. Short of another ice age, I guess.
We do get frosts, sometimes on consecutive days, and the lack of double-glazing, with basic wall and ceiling insulation batts, does mean the house gets cold. We also have a lot of tiled floor.
This bill gives a valuable insight into the changes that occur, in a period with less sun and more heating.
Average / day
A little over double for daily cost, and the reasons why are fairly obvious.
Import rose by 91%, and export fell by nearly 27%. So it cost me an extra 50 cents per day for import and I missed out on around 18 cents for export. In the ballpark at 68 cents.
There were only a couple of days where we ran the heating longer than an hour or so. With the big motor on this ducted system, that was more than enough to start hitting the import hard.
Next winter, with TOU now in place, we’ll be a bit smarter. I’m talking to Reposit about the best ways to utilise off-peak power, and how their software handles it.
Note: the reason behind the short interval for this bill is replacement of my meter. The GridCredits scheme is reliant on a sophisticated unit, which I’ll put up video of when I get the time.
Putting all the information into a table gives a nice summary of the solar with Powerwall six months down the track.
Not bad, though of course I have yet to experience a full summer with this system.
Summer will mean more power imports as we use the air conditioning. It also means longer daylight hours. Greater export will offset higher import, to a degree.
Compared to winter, where heating and shorter daylight hours have clearly had an effect, summer should be slightly better. I’m still at the mercy of those 40oC+ days, but at least I can pay them back a bit.
Of course, as panel temperatures rise above 25oC, efficiency will drop. More light = more heat in summer, so I might not see many days above 35kWh with the existing system.
Autumn and Spring are looking like the “Kill Bill” (*snigger*) periods for the year. The milder weather and lower heating/cooling requirements are really where its at.
Winter is going to be an issue ongoing, with lower daylight hours, and heating requirements. Summer will still need a lot of electricity imported, but can be offset with big exports.
The real challenge, moving forward, is to maximise self-consumption, and minimise waste. As always.
If I can keep the costs below $1 / day for my electricity, even with recent increases in tariffs, then I’m well on track to save $1900 in the first year. Maybe more after that!
For those playing at home, “opportunity cost” is an economic term, defined as follows:
…the loss of other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.
In particular, looking at my statement about leaving the money in the mortgage offset account, versus buying the system.
I had confidently stated my preference for the financial outcomes of the system early on. As it was likely to save me (at least) double the value of my offset in terms of electricity savings, it looked like an easy choice.
Honestly, opportunity cost was not something I gave much thought to. I decided to invest the money in acquiring a hybrid solar system. I wanted to save on electricity bills, and the money looked well-spent.
What some may not know is Lindsay and I had a fairly long email discussion about the direction of the article. We checked facts and figures,and compared notes in terms of thought process.
The ultimate conclusion is the one that most basic analyses have come to; the Powerwall is not yet considered financially sound in terms of payback, against its warranted 10 years.
Estimates for payback vary widely on how you analyse it, and individual circumstances. I had calculated mine at around 8-10 years, and that looked good after the first bill produced savings of ~ $450 compared to same quarter last year (or about $1800 per annum).
A small diversion
One question I’ve been asked via various forums is “how much did the Powerwall contribute to those savings?”
Well, I could go full sarcasmo and say “100% because If I didn’t like Powerwall I never would have bought the system!” Obviously, that is no help to the realists 😉
Without digging into the nitty-gritty, I’ve looked at the figures and come out in this ballpark:
50-55% Solar PV array in combination with time shift of usage
25-30% Powerwall ability to store and deliver power in evenings
5-10% change of retailer – I didn’t really import much.
Make of that what you will. No doubt for winter, that will change a little as heating becomes a priority.
Moving forward, there will be other factors like my move to Time Of Use power and power arbitrage. Also there are battery-related initiatives like GridCredits that will help keep costs low.
I got to thinking about my financials, since Lindsay’s article. During a subsequent proof read for another article I’ve written (to be published in the near future), I decided to go back and review “opportunity cost” as a thing.
I wondered if I’d made the right decision.
The article on gizmodo was right: while I was going to save on electricity bills, that money would no longer be helping slaughter my loan. By sticking it to the power company, I’d lost the chance to stick it to the bank!
What a conundrum…
I should mention that in the weeks before the install, I’d moved my mortgage to a product without an offset. I still could have dumped the lump sum it the mortgage directly, and let it ride.
But would I? Really?
Even in Aussie dollars, $16k is non-trivial amount of money to the average family. Maybe it was time to have a family holiday? Pay off some other debts? Do some enhancements around the house? Buy a GoT-themed jumping castle? Wait. What?
The point is, while its all well and good to say “stick it in the offset”, there are no guarantees that it would stay there. The problem with ready cash is that there are always things for which it could otherwise be used. Life happens.
Doing The Numbers…
For the sake of this discussion, let’s say the money went into the mortgage, for the Powerwall’s warranty period of 10 years.
Assume the interest rate stays at 4% (unlikely), and we keep any benefits in the mortgage. Under the principal investment of $15,990 the interest saved is $639.60 over the first year. Second year is principal $16,629.60 (adding the savings), which saves $665.18 and so on.
Now, based on rolling the principal + interest over every year, after 10 years we arrive at … carry the three … square the hypotenuse … divide by the tangential inverse of pi …
A total interest saved figure of $7,679.11 from my investment of $15,990.
I’ve continued to pay electricity bills during that time, of course.
Starting with my base usage costs of $1920 from the 12 months leading up to Powerwall, let’s be extremely generous to the retailers, and flag an upward move of 0.5% per year, on average.
That means in the first year the new usage costs are $1,929.60. Second year $1,939.25 – and so on.
Over 10 years, that little hike makes for a total electricity bill of $19,736…
Therefore, despite saving money in my offset, I’m still down by a figure of just over $12k. If the price rise was just 2% per year on average, its more like $21,443.93 paid to the electricity retailer (loss of nearly $14k).
Just for reference, 2% increase on usage costs, for the average of 25 cents per kilowatt hour in these parts, is half a cent.
If the increase was 4% (1 cent per kWh), I’m paying out nearly $24k in electricity. That’s enough to cancel out the interest savings AND put me in the hole for the value of my system!
Now For Something Completely Different
Man. Who knew an increase of 1 cent could hurt that much?
Let’s take another tack, and look at using the money I save on electricity against the mortgage.
degradation in Powerwall is cancelled out by increases in electricity price
money saved on bills will be put back into the mortgage*
* Again, it probably won’t, but given the opportunity cost matrix assumes that all monies stay dedicated to the mortgage, I say game on!
Starting at Year Zero with a capital position of negative $15,990 we can compound all our numbers moving forward. Remember, we’re adding $1800 into the pot every year from bill savings, as compared to my old provider.
Therefore in the first year, we subtract $639.60 in lost interest from the starting capital position, but add $1800 per year in bill savings. That rolls over to the new amount for calculating the offset in the next year.
This indicates that some time very early in the twelfth year is when I hit payback, under the opportunity cost calculation. That would be the system paying itself off in full, and accounting for the mortgage offset.
Does It Really Matter?
Really, these numbers are just an exercise in maths. And a bit of fun.
It would be highly unlikely in either scenario, that spare money would sit in the mortgage that long. There are things to do, and locking up a bunch of money for a few percent interest until I’m in my 50s? Sounds like wasted beer money, or holiday money, or holiday beer money.
Beyond the first year will I really save $1800? Will the addition of Reposit Power improve things further? What happens when the interest rate on my mortgage shifts?
Trying to cater for all these factors could drive a bloke crazy.
Looking at the opportunity cost is an interesting exercise, but it won’t keep me up at night. I’m hardly tying myself in knots with post-purchase cognitive dissonance either. I have a power bill that makes me smile.
There are also intangible benefits I’ve had on a personal level.
My rough biscuit has been on TV a few times, and across other media, which was a bit of fun.
I have created a little corner of the internet to blather my thoughts into the ether, and I’m flattered that people read it!
One of the best parts has been meeting with switched-on people, who want to make a real and positive change. They have a lot to teach, and I am in awe of the chance to learn from them.